Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of storage costs.
The Model is, a user-friendly online tool that enables analysis, comparisons, and forecasts for battery production costs and performance by technology, company, location, and raw material prices for hundreds of different batteries, including next-generation cells.
The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the suite of projected cost reductions (on a normalized basis) collected from the literature (shown in gray) as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (shown in black).
Thus, a collection of prospective developments in manufacturing chain and battery cell design, material price estimations, and planned expansions in the production capacities during the following years are gathered and input to a PBCM to yield cost trajectories for LiBs.
Within the historical period, cost reductions resulting from cathode active materials (CAMs) prices and enhancements in specific energy of battery cells are the most cost-reducing factors, whereas the scrap rate development mechanism is concluded to be the most influential factor in the following years.
However, a high-volume market for all components of battery cells except cathode active material is assumed , meaning that the unit price of all components in a battery cell except cathode active material are independent of factory size. The latter approach is adopted in this work.
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